Bring on the Clappers, the Chia Pets, the Ronco products, and the glitter...

Maybe this is just indicative of how fundamentally un-serious I am, but I'm glad that the campaign - and its associated ads - are over. I'm ready to move on and celebrate the holidays.

But not without making a few comments first:

I'm a little dismayed that the First Female Speaker of the House is the likes of Nancy Pelosi. I was really hoping my gender would be represented by someone a bit less...abrasive. (Then again, maybe it's wrong to assume gender-representation anyway. I have a lot more in common with certain men than I do with a lot of women, so maybe it's kind of a false thing to say "first female whatever" like it's something for me to even care about).

I'm expecting my more left-leaning colleagues to be happy today. And I'm expecting another odd thing I've noticed: a lot of them act, when the election is won by "their guy," like they did it personally - like it's some kind of triumph or achievement for them. And that always struck me as odd. I mean, I'm happy when the person I supported wins - mainly because I think he will serve well and represent me in the way I'd like to be represented, but I don't feel like I had anything to do with it beyond casting my single vote. (Likewise: when my guy loses, I'm disappointed, but I don't feel like it's a personal failure or that the world is going to come to an immediate end).

Speaking of the world not coming to an immediate end:

I have four predictions. Two are unrealistic (unrealistic best-case, unrealistic worst-case) and two are, I think, more realistic (again, best-case and worst-case).

Understand that I'm not a political analyst and am actually probably pretty stupid about politics. But hey, this is my blog, so I can say stupid things here.

So:

Unrealistic best-case scenario: The new folks show up in Washington and realize, "holy crap, we really are supposed to lead." That's immediately followed by the thought of "the most important thing is keeping the nation safe." So then we get better border policy and some kind of plan comes out to help stabilize Iraq.

Probability: less than 10% I'd say.

Unrealistic worst-case scenario: Taxes go up, and new things get taxed (a tax on "junk food," say). The troops are pulled out of Iraq immediately and the place falls apart, more civilians die than died before. We suffer some other kind of attack on our soil. As a result, new and unpleasantly restrictive "anti-terror" laws get passed so you have to do things like show a "citizen's card" to be allowed to shop at the grocery store. The country's economy tanks under the pressure of new taxes and the "anti-terror" restrictions. The one good thing? Probably the folks don't get re-elected. (Even if all the bad stuff isn't directly traceable to their leadership)

Probability: also less than 10% of all that happening.

Realistic best-case scenario: gridlock with pretty much the status quo. Maybe some taxes go up or some tax cuts go away.

Probability: I'd say somewhere in the vicinity of 60%.

Realistic worst-case scenario: Taxes go up, tax cuts go away. Troops get pulled out of Iraq earlier than is ideal but things don't get much worse there. Some stupid laws get passed. Some further losses of privacy/comfort happen in the name of Keeping Us Safe From Terrorists even though the losses of privacy/comfort won't really stop a terrorist who is determined.

Probability: what am I left with now? Maybe about 30%?

So, I don't know. My gut says there will be some stuff that most right-ish people will be unhappy with, but I don't think it will be the whole schmear of Bad Things that the commentators froth about. (I've learned not to listen to commentators because I am too susceptible to beginning to believe their froth).

And maybe some good would come out of a premature withdrawal of troops. Maybe the Iraqi government and security forces will realize that they need to step up because they can't depend on America any more - and maybe they'll really step up WELL, and things will be very successful, and we'll look back 20 years later and go, wow, Iraq really turned out to be a good model for democracy in the middle east.

Yeah, I'm being optimistic.

But to (mis)quote Sophie Tucker: I've been an optimist and I've been a pessimist. Optimist is better.